Named after Janus, the Roman god often depicted with two faces (one that looks to the past and one to the future), January is the month of new beginnings. The month we put lessons from the past year into action, and the month we navigate the economic predictions for the year ahead.

With Trump trades flooding the equity market in the run up to the US elections; a sell-off in the treasury markets since then; and Bitcoin hitting an all-time high this month, it is fair to say, that for some investors at least, the last few months have been a bare-knuckle roller-coaster ride.

Financial markets are at an interesting juncture, with equity indices at an all-time high and forecast central bank cuts promising relief to wary fixed income investors. Inflationary pressures are moderating, and fears of a major economic downturn seem to have evaporated. For many, the much-desired Goldilocks scenario appears to be playing out.

Over the past five years, bond markets have experienced a remarkable transformation that has reshaped the investment landscape. However, from the pandemic to the rising macro-economic pressures of today, fixed income continues to play an important role in portfolio construction. To maximise the benefits of this asset class, it is crucial to understand what has driven this market evolution and where it is likely to head next.

The saying that all good things must come to an end is a bittersweet reflection of reality. Sadly, too many of us fail to appreciate those good times, often focusing on what could or might go wrong. Perhaps this is understandable given the potential for higher interest rates to stifle economic growth and an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

Ardea Investment Management is a specialist relative value investor, focusing on non-directional opportunities within the global fixed income market. Unlike more traditional fixed income mangers, our investment process seeks to identify and exploit mispricing between assets with similar risk characteristics and does not rely on forecasts for the direction of interest rates or other macroeconomic variables to generate performance.

“In a world that is constantly changing, there is no one subject or set of subjects that will serve you for the foreseeable future, let alone for the rest of your life.” So said the American author, John Naisbitt, whose analysis of social trends led to predictions regarding automation in the workplace, globalisation and even the rise of artificial intelligence.

Europe continues to dominate in the green bond space in 2023, with most green bonds issued either by a European name or denominated in EUR. Following Poland as the first sovereign to issue a green bond in 2016, supply and demand for Supranational, Sub-Sovereign and Agency (SSA) green bonds in Europe has continued to grow.

Since the European Union's Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (“SFDR”) came into force in March 2021, asset managers have been required to provide more information on the sustainability risks and impact of their investment products sold in the European Union.